By the end of 2026, the cost of bread and bakery products in Ukraine may increase by 10-15%This forecast was voiced by the President of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, Leonid Kozachenko, in a comment to the publication "Kommersant Ukrainsky".
At the same time, the expert reassured: in the coming summer months, there will be no sharp jump in prices thanks to the active harvesting campaign, which is saturating the domestic market with grain from the new harvest.
Four main factors of price increase
The increase in bread prices is economically justified and is due to a significant increase in the costs of farmers and bakers in several items:
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Increase in labor costs: According to the State Statistics Service, the average salary in Ukraine has already exceeded the mark in 30 thousand hryvnias, and in large agricultural holdings it is even higher. Compared to last year, personnel costs almost doubled, which significantly increased the cost of production.
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Staff shortage: The acute shortage of skilled workers in the agricultural sector forces employers to artificially raise wages to retain people and ensure the continuity of production processes.
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Fuel price increase: Constant fluctuations and price increases on the world oil market directly affect the internal cost of fuels and lubricants, without which it is impossible to harvest, transport grain, and deliver flour to factories and retail chains.
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New tariffs of Ukrzaliznytsia: The country's main logistics operator increases the tariff for freight transportation of grain crops by 30 %, which automatically increases the transportation costs of producers.
When to expect new price tags in stores
The process of reviewing the price of bread will take place in two main stages:
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July – August: Mass harvest period. Due to the high supply of raw materials on the market, prices will remain stable. Only slight fluctuations within the limits are possible. 1,5-2%.
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End of September – December: The beginning of the main stage of price increase. It is from the end of the first month of autumn that bakers will begin to fully incorporate accumulated losses and logistics and fuel costs into the final cost of products. According to Leonid Kozachenko, during this period, price tags will increase by at least 5%, and closer to winter, the total increase will certainly reach 10–15%.
