The National Bank predicts a downward adjustment of retail fuel prices in the near future. The main condition for this is a favorable external environment. However, current figures indicate serious inflationary pressure caused by the previous price jump.
Price increase statistics (March 2026 to March 2025):
-
Diesel: +36% (versus 12,2% in December);
-
Gasoline A-95: +23% (versus 6,2% in December);
-
Liquefied gas: +15,2% (versus 3,3% in December).
Why has diesel become more expensive? In addition to the war in the Middle East, the price was affected by low stocks of soybeans in the European Union and seasonal demand from Ukrainian farmers during the sowing season.
Why is a decrease expected?
The NBU notes that during April, wholesale prices for diesel and gas began to gradually decrease. Since the retail market reacts to the wholesale with a certain delay (the shock is transferred gradually), this creates a basis for revising prices at gas stations in May.
Impact on overall inflation and Ukrainians' wallets
According to the State Statistics Service, annual inflation accelerated in April to 8,6%The rise in fuel prices has set off a "chain reaction":
-
Transport: The cost of transportation increased by 4,7%, and travel by road transport - on 6,5%.
-
Food products: Due to logistical costs, food prices have increased by 1,9% per month.
-
Growth leaders: Grain processing products (+16,7%), sugar, oil and bread.
Additional pressure factors:
-
Energy: Capacity shortages due to shelling are forcing businesses to use generators (which increases demand for fuel).
-
Exchange rate: The strengthening of the dollar on world markets is putting pressure on the hryvnia.
-
Salaries: Higher-than-expected household income growth is also fueling consumer inflation.
Context: The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) has already called on gas station chains to refrain from unjustified price gouging and to promptly respond to the decline in the cost of petroleum products on the world market.
