Ukrainians will have to live with power outages for at least several years, as the power system is seriously damaged and lacks sufficient reserves. The most difficult situation is currently in large cities and frontline regions, with peak outages predicted in winter and summer.
This was stated by the director of the Energy Research Center, Oleksandr Kharchenko, in a comment. TelegrafAccording to him, power outages could occur at any time for at least the next few years.
The main problem is the physical depletion of the infrastructure. Not only power plants are damaged, but also distribution networks, transformers, and nodes on which supply for hundreds of thousands of consumers depends.
The situation is such that one transformer can supply 100-300 thousand families, and its breakdown or damage leads to large areas being left without electricity. At the same time, there is often simply no backup capacity.
In fact, the system is operating “on the edge”, without sufficient safety margin, and even without new attacks, emergency shutdowns are possible. Even with the availability of funding and technical assistance, full restoration of the power system is a matter of years.
According to the expert, the minimum period is about three years. And the reason here is not only in money, because there are objective technical limitations. Production and delivery of equipment take time, and complex energy facilities cannot be restored “in a few months”. In other words, even maximum resources are not able to speed up these processes many times.
The greatest risks of outages are in regions that have high consumption, have suffered significant damage, and are located closer to the attack zones. These include:
Kyiv;
Odesa;
Kharkiv region;
Sumy region;
Chernihiv region.
This is where the system operates with the highest load and the lowest safety margin. In particular, there are two periods when the load on the power system increases sharply:
winter – due to heating and peak consumption;
July-August – because of air conditioners and heat.
During these periods, outage schedules may become more severe and longer. The optimistic scenario assumes gradual improvement over several years. But a quick “return to normal” is not expected.
Even assuming complete stabilization of the situation, the system needs time to recover, modernize, and create reserves. Without this, any load will again lead to failures.
As OBOZ.UA previously reported, the head of the Presidential Office, Kyrylo Budanov, stated about serious problems in the energy sector of Ukraine. According to him, the country is facing a large electricity deficit, and because of this, the next heating season of 2026–2027 will be difficult.
This article paints a rather sobering and, frankly, difficult picture for all of us. The situation in Ukraine's energy system remains critical, and expert forecasts indicate that electricity shortage will be our reality until at least 2028-2029.
Here are the main theses from the material that will help you understand the scale of the challenge:
Why will this take years?
The main reason is not only the shelling, but also technical terms of restoration.
-
Production cycle: The production of powerful transformers and turbines takes from 9 to 18 months.
-
Lack of reserves: The system operates “on wheels.” Any failure at a node that supplies power to hundreds of thousands of people immediately leads to outages, because it is often impossible to switch consumers to backup lines—they have been destroyed.
-
Stabilization period: Full recovery and building a safety margin will take at least 3 years.
Where is the situation most difficult?
The risks are unevenly distributed. Large cities with a population of over a million and frontline areas are hardest hit:
-
Kyiv and Odesa: Huge consumption and complex node diagram.
-
Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv regions: Proximity to the border and constant pressure on infrastructure.
Critical periods
Energy experts identify two "peaks" when the schedules will be the tightest:
-
July – August: Due to the widespread use of air conditioners during the heat.
-
Winter: Due to the heating season and short daylight hours.
Importantly: Next heating season 2026–2027, according to officials, could be one of the most difficult due to accumulated shortages and equipment wear and tear.
This requires us not only patience, but also adaptation - from installing solar panels and energy storage to the banal habit of charging power banks in advance.
